Diary: Living with a pandemic 25 (Thursday 9 April 2020)

COVID-19 models in Canada…

Most provinces, along with the federal government have now released models of how the Covid-19 infection rates have so far shown themselves and how they may look in the next few months.

The model for Canada can be found here.

The model for Alberta can be found here.

The model for British Columbia can be found here.

The model for Ontario can be found here.

The model for Quebec can be found here.

All of them show the situation will get worse before it gets better. Without the programs already instituted restricting travel and physical distancing, cases would rise into the hundreds of thousands and deaths in the tens of thousands.

Even with the new rules we will still see hundreds of deaths, but we should be able to avoid the catastrophic numbers seen in countries like Italy and Spain. Current stock and access to further supplies of personal protective equipment means that in most areas our front-line health care personnel will be able to handle the wave of sickness that is to be expected curing the coming weeks.

Along with the pandemic, we will face massive unemployment, particularly in Alberta which faces other impacts related to our energy industry.

The objectives are still the same to keep infections down and those are for people to STAY HOME as much as possible, observe the best hygienic processes and avoid contact with others outside the immediate family.