The
world is turning differently…
It
seems everything we thought was normal no longer is. And maybe won’t be again.
This must be what people felt during previous times of significant upheaval,
especially during earlier disease outbreaks that killed thousands, sometimes
millions.
I
do a lot of work relating natural phenomena and family history, looking at
physical changes to habitat and the environment during past centuries and
reviewing information about how such events impacted people and communities. As
I describe in my ‘genea-bio’ (the description of my background and experience
in genealogical studies), I am of the view “that humankind has always had to
adapt to the ever-changing physical environments in which they lived.”
Human
beings probably been the most successful species because of their ability to
adapt to change, from localized disasters such as storms or floods to
millennial changes in climatic conditions. Pandemics are one of those things
that Mother Nature sends to test us, and she has done so quite frequently over
the past 10,000 years. They have become particularly widespread and deadly as
the world’s population has increased and contact between communities around the
world has been easier.
It
does not matter where such diseases start. The infection patterns all appear to
have followed trade and travel routes, carried by people and vermin following
their normal paths between local communities and around the world. The next one,
and there will be more, will be similar although one can hope that nations will
be better prepared to recognize infections and have the resources to prevent
their wholesale destruction.
In
Canada today, almost 17,900 cases have been confirmed. We know there are more
as not everyone who has symptoms has been tested. The overall rate of increase
is hopefully slowing. The next couple of weeks will tell us for sure. We know
the numbers change hourly but a snapshot now gives us a good indications where
we are and where we might be going.
Provinces
in Canada are gradually rolling out projections as to where they think Covid-19
cases will go and what deaths might be expected. They are not pleasant numbers
to read.
Last
week British Colombia looked at their history and current level of infections
and believe their final totals will be well below 200 cases per one million
population. Ontario and Quebec numbers are likely to be much higher. Alberta expects
thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths. And on top of that, massive
unemployment due to the downturn in our primary petroleum industry. Numbers
from all sources are daunting but there is also confidence we will come through
it.
As
of 7 April 2020 the provincial and territorial numbers were:
|
Province
|
Total Cases
|
Day Over Day
Increase
|
Total Deaths
|
Total Recovered
|
|
Alberta
|
1,373
|
1.8%
|
26 (1.9%)
|
447 (32.6%)
|
|
British
Columbia
|
1,291
|
2.8%
|
43 (3.3%)
|
805 (62.4%)
|
|
Manitoba
|
217
|
6.4%
|
3 (1.4%)
|
21 (9.6%)
|
|
New
Brunswick
|
105
|
1.9%
|
0
|
39 (37.2%)
|
|
Newfoundland
& Labrador
|
228
|
1.0%
|
2
|
49
|
|
Northwest
Territories
|
5
|
|
0
|
1
|
|
Nova
Scotia
|
310
|
5.8%
|
1
|
66
|
|
Nunavut
|
0
|
|
0
|
0
|
|
Ontario
|
4,726
|
8.7%
|
153 (3.2%)
|
1,802 (38.1%)
|
|
Prince
Edward Island
|
22
|
|
0
|
6
|
|
Quebec
|
9,340
|
8.8%
|
150 (1.6%)
|
720 (7.7%)
|
|
Saskatchewan
|
260
|
2.8%
|
3 (1.1%)
|
88 (3.8
|
|
Yukon
|
7
|
|
0
|
4
|
It
is heartening is that the group of those who have recovered is also growing –
over 4,050 as of yesterday (22% of total cases). Deaths at 381 is very sad but
represents about 2% of total cases. When other countries are reporting 10% and
higher, we can take some comfort. The right actions and rules appear to be in
place.
The
message is still very clear from all regions, though, and that is to STAY HOME
as much as possible.
And keep that sense of humour...
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