Going
back to normal…
Most
regions are trying to get back to normal. Businesses are opening, under some
strict regulations and guidelines. Some travel is being allowed although the
skies are not quite wide open yet for international flights.
Individuals
provinces, states, countries are thinking they are over the hump, so to speak.
That is, they have reached the peak of infections and deaths and can now look
forward to easily handling whatever cases may arrive in the future.
No
one knows for sure, though.
We
do know that economies have suffered massive contractions and that digging out
of the morass of business failure, debt and unemployment will take years, as
long as another disaster does not intrude on plans.
Now
the arguments and recriminations have started. Many people that have survived
without ever seeing someone with Covid-19 are wondering if there ever was a
problem, if there was a need for us to keep our distance from each other.
Hindsight 20/20 is great, isn’t it? You can find theories that lockdowns were
not necessary as the case numbers were never high enough that we could not
cope. Others will say that because of the lockdown, those numbers were kept
low.
People
have forgotten what happened in Italy, Spain, France, Brazil, the United
Kingdom and especially the United States, where cases numbered in the hundreds
of thousands and deaths in the tens of thousands. Many people lament that they
could not go to the pub, get out the golf clubs, visit with friends or go to
work. And these are all significant restrictions on our lives.
This
pandemic, unlike others in the past, has been particularly devastating on older
people, so much so that younger generations may feel they have born the brunt
of rules governing social gathering and employment. That is true and they will pay
the most in the future in any economic recovery. In Alberta, the average age of
those who have died of Covid-19 is 82. Across Canada three quarters of deaths
were people over the age of 80.
The
next wave of this virus may not be so selective. During the Spanish Flu
pandemic of 1918-1920, the first wave was typical of influenza infections and
killed mainly the sick and elderly. Younger people showed fewer symptoms and
recovered quickly. The second wave attacked mostly younger, healthier people,
due in part to the mutation of the virus to a more deadly form and to the fact
that people were forced into closer contact during the war years.
Left:
three pandemic waves - weekly
combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918–1919; Right: combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, by age at death, per 100,000
persons
Will
countries and people be lulled into thinking the dangers of Covid-19 are past?
Will it mutate the way most viruses do? Will it attack in a similar manner to
past pandemics? The next several months will tell us a lot. Hopefully it will
not be bad news.
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