Diary: Living with a pandemic 37 (Sunday 10 May 2020)

Mothers’ Day…

Usually Mothers’ Day is a quiet one here. Our children all live far away, but they do make the effort to send flowers and phone or Facetime their mother. She appreciates the love, thoughtfulness and attention. And we all appreciate her!

What is different this time is that we won’t be going out for brunch or dinner. Probably fire up the BBQ again.

 

Family life…

Family life for everyone has be disrupted in ways no one could imagine. This year we would be looking forward to spending our 50^th wedding anniversary with our family, perhaps at a distant resort where everyone could relax and visit. Because we are spread out on two continents, the opportunities to be together in one place at the same time are limited. This was to be one of those occasions.

We don’t anticipate there will be anyone in our family, travelling anywhere this year. Let’s face it, the odds of a second wave of Covid-19, based on historical pandemics, is high. And few people will want to take the chance of leaving home to visit a place where they do not know what the health conditions might be like. Next year seems a long way off for making plans to visit.

It’s the same for everyone, of course. We count ourselves lucky we still live in our own home, can still shop for groceries, have the technology to Facetime and are not dependent on outside care.

One curious thing that has happened recently – the toilet paper jokes we have laughed at have also been replaced by many about husbands.

Social Life…

Normally we would visit with friends, go to lunch or join others in a neighbour get-together. Now we mostly wave at them as we pass (6 m apart) on the street. Ah, those days at the pub are now remembered fondly, with friendly staff and food we did not have to cook.

For many, social life is comparing, via email, what shows are best on Netflix. And sharing those husband jokes.

No thanks…

On this special day, there is one entity that will not be thanked or receive well wishes for bringing all this on…Mother Nature!

Diary: Living with a pandemic 36 (Wednesday 6 May 2020)

The news…

I think we are all getting sick (not literally, thankfully) of the constant barrage of bad news concerning Covid-19. On some TV channels it is on all day long, with the pundits and self-styled experts telling us the latest statistics and commenting on the government support programs – or lack thereof.

It’s difficult to find a story in a newspaper that is not pandemic-related. Almost everyone I know has had enough of being told how bad things are. And there is no doubt they are bad, but do we need a play-by-play of events.

I am glad we live where we do, where people are still cooperative, knowledgeable and in general agreement with the steps that are being taken to minimize the risks of contracting and spreading the virus: staying home as much as possible, avoiding contact with people outside the family, washing hands, etc.

Understandably, some people are getting restless with not being able to go to work or congregate with friends. Filling up the time or keeping the bank account healthy are worrisome things.

News from many parts of the US show protests, a few of them violent, with people wrapping themselves in the American flag and suggesting that quarantine is a communist conspiracy or that restricting their movements is somehow an attack on personal freedom. Even wearing face masks into stores has received some unbelievable response with a security guard in Michigan being shot to death by an unhappy customer who did not think their child should be put to the difficulty of donning personal protection.

Those people wanting to go back to “normal” immediately do not seem to understand how deadly this virus is or that in opening stores and recreation areas, while case and death numbers are still rising, is so dangerous and could end up in another, more disastrous wave. It’s a selfish point of view, not an infringement of rights, to knowingly put others at risk. I hope we keep our borders closed to those types of individuals.

Sporting events…

And still the major professional sports leagues think they can salvage their seasons, when there is no likelihood that large crowds will be allowed to gather for several months, or that people would even be willing to risk their lives if stadiums and arenas were opened.

The National Hockey League is considering using a few “hub-cities” where a few teams would gather, stay housed in hotels and play to empty rinks to finish the season and begin the payoffs. It’s all about the TV revenue, of course. There are two cities in western Canada, Edmonton and Vancouver, being considered.

What no one wants to address, though, is how you get players from all over the world into the country (Canada or the US) when there are no planes flying and anyone entering would have to immediately go into a 14-day quarantine. And then they would have to be tested for the virus before they could be allowed to be in contact with anyone else.

How would the rest of the citizens feel, especially us older ones, if privileged sports figures got bumped up the queue to get tested while the rest of us waited to become eligible? Or sick! Not very good about it I can tell you!

Not the time to get distracted…

Isn’t it time everyone, EVERYONE, realized we are not going back to where we were any time soon? We don’t need live sports on TV. We don’t need crowds of shoppers (not that everyone will be rushing out to buy stuff anyway). We don’t need patio parties or crowded restaurants. Children are fine to learn at home for a while yet. Seniors don’t mind being at the grocery store at times there are few other shoppers or having their wine delivered. We don’t really need golf courses to be open either, but those guys think they are immune.

We need to stay focused, first, on halting the spread of Covid-19 and then looking at reasonable ways to re-energize the important parts of the economy that will allow people to resume whatever productive work can be taken up again. Playing hockey in front of TV cameras is not productive work.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 35 (Sunday 3 May 2020)

The calendar turned…

We finally slid into May with a few changes in our lives. Golfers were out, as a few courses were allowed to open. Club houses and pro shops are not yet as groups of people are still not allowed to congregate. And there are still restrictions on numbers and how people should interact.

The Alberta government, along with other provincial bodies is moving to open the economy. By mid-month, if the infection, hospitalization and deaths numbers stabilize, many retail stores and restaurants may be allowed to open. It remains to be seen whether owners and employees will want to go to work, even though all are chomping at the bit to do so.

Certainly, more than a few cannot wait to see their hairdresser.

Garden centres are open for business as spring weather is cooperating and people are anxious to get their yards growing. There have been some shifts in retailing as a few major suppliers have cut back on the amount of stock they may offer. That has thrown off the growers as well as the public. Crowds are discouraged and people are still required to keep their distance from each other.

Many of us will likely have product delivered. And many will probably not do up their gardens in the way they have in the past as they won’t want to stand in long lines or take a chance on making contact with others who might have the bug.

The statistics…

In world is well past 4.4 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 243,000 deaths. Many countries are continuing to see their numbers escalate so we are a long way from being out of this pandemic.

Cases in Canada are still rising. As of May 2^nd, there were 56,714 cases, 3,566 deaths and 23,801 recoveries. Various governments had also tested over 903,000 people (almost 24 per thousand in population). While the case/fatality ratio has been lower than it was for the SARS epidemic of 2003, the transmission of the virus has been significantly greater.

In Alberta, there have been 5,670 cases confirmed, but only 229 people hospitalized (49 in ICUs). That is a good thing. Our hospitals are well equipped to handle a much higher number of infections. Over 2,500 people have recovered, which is also a good thing. There have been 94 deaths, which is never a good thing.

We hope that people do not think the worst is over and throw caution to the wind in terms of physical distancing, and we end up with a larger spike in infections and deaths in the coming months.

There’s an app for that…

Contact tracing has been a very important aspect of determining where, when and how the virus has been transmitted. Many countries early on used the cellphones of the public to track the locations of their citizens and work out the routes of the virus. That data allowed them to quickly contain outbreaks.

In our part of the world, North America in particular, people are too distracted over privacy concerns. It does not seem to matter whether there are thousands of lives at stake, just don’t reach into their supposed private information to find out if they came into contact with the virus. They don’t seem to realize that if they have a phone the whole world, especially the advertizers in it, knows where they are and what they are doing. And if they have paid a tax or other fee they private information is well know to authorities.

In Alberta, there is a new app for contact tracing. It is entirely private, secure and totally vountary. No private information is stored on a government computer. All you do is sign up with your cell phone number. If you come within two meters of someone who has a cell phone and tested positive you will be informed and asked to come in for a test. That’s another good thing.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 34 (Wednesday 29 April 2020)

More attacks by Mother Nature…

If it was not bad enough to Albertans to be hit with a pandemic, many residents now face other impacts from Mother Nature by way of floods and, potentially, fires.

In several communities in the northern part of the province, ice jams caused by spring breakup, have produced exceptional flooding. Normally that might not be anything more than something rivers do, except that when those flood waters cover towns and cities it becomes a disaster.

Flooding at Fort Vermillion, Alberta - photo: Jake Fehr

In Fort McMuray, most of which was burned to the ground during an intense fire in 2016, is now reeling from water that rose quickly to rooftops. There was mandatory evacuation of most of the city this week which displaed13,000 people. There is a boil water advisory for those who remain, even if they were able to store water before the main flood hit and disrupted utilities.

 

Flooding at Fort McMurray, Alberta - photo: Shannon O'Connor-Warren

Moving people to safety is complicated, of course, due to physical distancing restrictions. Help is being offered by government and private sources, including hotels.

Dry conditions…

In southern Alberta, the normal dry spring conditions has forestry officials worried about the potential for fires. Already there have been a few grass fires, probably caused by careless smokers or other that have come close to houses. Provincial parks are closed, and all open fires are banned province wide. Since most fires are started by humans, the hope is that we will avoid any major conflagrations. Fire crews will not have the flexibility to get to work with the current quarantine situation so a full ban on access to vulnerable locations is necessary.

Areas under fire bans

 Light at the end of the tunnel?

Provinces are beginning to put in place plans to open the economy. Those regions with few cases will be among the first to allow stores and services to resume business. Alberta is in good shape, in spite of still rising numbers of cases. A new model shows that hospitalizations will be well under what could have happened had we not engaged in rigorous physical distancing.

Most outbreaks here have been in clusters which health officers have worked to contain. There have been 80 deaths in the province, 52 of them in continuing care facilities. A meat-packing plant in southern Alberta has 759 cases of the total 4,850 in the province. Another 249 cases were confirmed in a second plant, also in the southern area. If closed for a long period, they will seriously affect the supply of meat and poultry to the whole country, so there is an even greater urgency to contain the infections.

Hospitalization numbers, which are the statistic that really tell us how bad a situation is, are very low compared to the model that was constructed in early April. Only 202 people have been admitted to hospitals with Covid-19 and only 47 have had to be moved to an ICU. That is good news, if there can be any. The health department predicts that less than 300 will ultimately require hospital care.

We can expect to see physical distancing rules still in place for some time, but store owners and employees will certainly be happy to get back to work.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 33 (Sunday 26 April 2020)

New hits and a lost summer…

In Alberta a couple of major outbreaks of Covid-19 have put a damper on summer. We should not be surprised. This pandemic is far from dead.

The province’s chief medical office of health is taking a lot of flack these days because of the restrictions placed and continuing on gatherings. On 23 April 2020, she reiterated that “the mass gathering restrictions currently in place also apply to all summer events or festivals in Alberta. To be clear, the orders in place prohibit gathering of more than 15 people. Albertans are prohibited from attending any event that would violate these orders. While we are all eager for a relaunch and wanting to see an easing of restrictions, now is not the time to have people moving throughout the province and possibly unknowingly spreading the virus.”

Many people are calling for rules to be relaxed so they can get back to work, or at least play golf with their friends. Some regions are adopting plans that will see certain activities and businesses be allowed to open in the near term. The danger is that we have no idea about the full health impact of this virus or whether and how it will continue to attack.

Our own annual get-together of neighbours in our condo will not go ahead this year. We’ll have to continue to wave at each other as we pass on our daily walks and keep exchanging the funny or informative emails that help us all get through the quiet days.

Fruits and vegetables…

You know . . . those things your mother (and daughter-in-law in my case) kept telling you are good for you and should be in your diet in quantity. Well, we might be on the horizon of doing just that. Around here, workers at a few meat-producing facilities across the country have been hit in large numbers with the virus. Some plants have been closed while the situation is being dealt with. Others are threatened. In addition to the tragedy of more infections, there could also be a serious impact on some parts of our food supply.

For us meat-lovers, this could be a real blow. I may to revert to my diet that contains the basic food groups of coffee, beer and chocolate chip cookies.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 32 (Friday 24 April 2020)

Shopping day…

Today was my normal grocery shopping day. That routine falls on me now. Since I am up very early to walk the dogs (first outing is before 5:30 am) then getting to the local Safeway for their seniors’ hour between 7:00 and 8:00 am is no problem.

Yesterday was a similar experience at Costco although their seniors-only time started at 8:00 am. It was well-attended. We all joked, of course, that age is only a number. But for shopping these days, it is very important number as we get in first.

I got to the Costco outlet at 7:24 am. But I was not the first. The line of people and carts was already around the side of the store. About 15 carts (with people attached) snaked from the front door around the corner. From there, a Disneyland-like queue wound back and forth, each segment having about 25 carts in it. I was near the front of the second segment so only about 50 carts were ahead of me. Just to show how popular the early morning seniors’ shopping time was, by the time the line started moving into the building a full four segments were full – over 100 carts waiting.

Early morning shopping for us old folks is great! At least for those who wake up with the sun. I hope they make it permanent after the current crisis.

Handy pickup service…

Our local pub is now open for takeout – curbside pickup or delivery. I have said before that we missed our regular lunches there. So, this week we put in an order. Our friendly pub manager brought it right to the car, with a bottle of wine. I am sure we will be ordering more of our favourites in the coming weeks.

The Calgary Stampede…

For the first time in 97 years, our city will not host the Greatest Outdoor Show on Earth. This one adds to all the other economic hits to our local economy. Every community, of course, has lost entertainment, sporting and leisure events this year, so we are not alone, but it is a sad occasion, nonetheless.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 31 (Wednesday 22 April 2020)

The calm…

In the early weeks of the pandemic, infections were increasing at rates of between 10% and 25% in most regions and countries. Governments were shocked and surprised by the attack of Covid-19 and struggled to catch up and contain the virus. Some managed better than others.

During the last month we have seen infection and death rates drop to 2%, still a large number in many countries. In regions that were late in acting, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, numbers are still on the high side: in the US there are over 826,000 cases and 45,300 deaths (138 per million population), rising at 3.3% and 6.9% respectively; in the UK, 129,000 cases and 17,300 deaths (260 per million) in April. These are only officially published numbers, though. The real totals could be a lot higher.

In Canada, most provinces are beginning to see where the peak will be. There are still a few problem areas. While the deaths total 1,834 (49 per million population), the growth curves are beginning to flatten.

In Alberta, our home province, cases have spiked over the last couple of weeks. The recent growth in case numbers (to 3,095) is partly a result of increased testing but also partly due to some community spreading where physical distancing was not practiced to the degree it could and should have been. The real situation will not be revealed for a couple of weeks when the current positive tests work their way through the system. If there is a positive, it is that less than 150 have required hospitalization.

We are not out of the woods just yet, but people are “breathing” a little easier. A third of those infected have recovered. The greatest proportion of deaths has unfortunately been in long-term care facilities which are bearing the brunt of the disease and now will be getting the most attention to halt its spread.

Smiles…

It is hard to find good or happy news theses days. I scour the newspaper daily for something that will bring a laugh of a smile. The comics pages does not always do the job but maybe we all need to look for any place for a family picnic (as shown in today's Calgary Herald) . . .

. . . or find a “happy box.”

Diary: Living with a pandemic 30 (Sunday 19 April 2020)

The tension is rising…

We have reached a point where the patience of many people is wearing thin. Staying home for long periods, with little to ease boredom takes its toll.

Newspaper are full of negative news, more cases, more deaths, more time in basic quarantine or at least that is what it feels like. There are more reports of domestic strife. More attention is being paid to mental health concerns. Alberta just announced this week a plan to inject millions of dollars into program to provide assistance and counseling to those who are feeling overwhelmed with the prospects of sickness and death, or the loss of jobs and careers.

Those in charge are showing the stress of living with programs they have developed or have to administer 24/7. They are continually asked when it will end, and the answer is always the same: no one knows.

We hear more bleating from individuals who decry the restrictions around physical distancing and who think everyone should just get back to work. People ae restless and do want to get back to work. In a few areas in the US they have been holding public demonstrations demanding the lifting of physical distancing regulations.

Politicians are moving back to the sniping we usually see among that group with remonstrations about how the crisis was allowed to intrude uncontrolled and whether measures are effective as they could be. Blame is being assigned to those where the pandemic first arose that will undoubtedly fester in the months to come as economies struggle to stabilized.

People are reaching out to each other virtually and electronically, but you can hear the frustration of being alone. My 85-year old aunt messaged me yesterday, “My great-great-grandson was born in February and my great-granddaughter was born April 10th. Can't get to see them as I'm isolated.” This is a lady who is widowed (she lost her second husband last year), had four children (one died two years ago), and presently has 11 grandchildren, 14 great-grandchildren and now two great-great-grandchildren. They all live quite close to her and have been an integral part of her life with frequent visits and family gatherings. She is the most up-beat person in our family and the physical distancing is hard on her.

More pets are being adopted as people seek to fill their empty hours with animals instead of other people. You have to worry whether these cats and dogs will suffer themselves after the lives of their owners resume.

Few people are alive that lived through the 1918 event. Others choose to ignore the lessons of that contagion. These people have not read or heard about the experiences of past pandemics such as the one in 1918 Spanish Flu. At that time people kept apart voluntarily and by government edict. There was mandatory use of face masks in many areas, with people being fined for not wearing them in public. 

In Canada over 50,000 people died, 4,000 of them in Alberta. Soldiers arrived home from the European front to find most of their family dead.

Restrictions were eventually relaxed after the major spread in 1918. What happened was a second powerful wave from a mutated version of the virus that killed thousands more.

Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it (George Santayana , 1905: The Life of Reason).

We would do well to remember the lessons of the past. The Covid-19 pandemic is not different that what transpired in 1918. It just has acted faster, probably mostly due to the speed in which people can now travel to spread it. And it probably just as deadly.

Family Tree (Virtually) Live

Today, I was supposed to be arriving at the Roseview Alexandra Place Hotel in London, ahead of the Family Tree Live 2020 conference. I was scheduled to deliver two talks and one workshop on the weekend of April 17th and 18th.

Well, of course we all know how that trip and conference has turned out!

Undaunted, the Family Tree magazine publisher in partnership with the Family History Federation have made some different arrangements to at least partly satisfy those that wanted to attend the conference in person. As they say in their latest newsletter:  

The Family Tree virtually Live event will be held on 17 and 18 April right here on the FT website, bringing you a range of video tutorials and special offers. We're not letting the current situation stop us, and whilst we're unable to meet up at Alexandra Palace for Family Tree Live 2020, we're still bringing elements of the show to you here on the website.

I recorded my two talks and they will now be put online with many others for the general public to view under the following rules:

The videos will be freely available to watch until 24 April, after which they will only be available to Family Tree magazine subscribers.

If you do not subscribe to Family Tree you can now do so only £3 (for UK residents), usually £15.75. The overseas digital subscription is £16.99 (under $30 Canadian or half price). A subscription will give you access to the full, growing library of videos, as well as, of course, the great magazine. (I have an article in the current May issue.)

Come and see what it is all about.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 29 (Wednesday 15 April 2020)

Handling Covid-19…

There is a lot of chatter among people and in the media about what is the best way to handle the Covid-19 pandemic. Currently the advice from health and government officials is to maintain physical distancing. And it seems to be working well.

Avoiding contact with each other gives us at least a fighting chance to control the infection rates. In most jurisdictions that instituted restrictions of this type, the case numbers and deaths have been kept relatively low.

There are a few people who advocate the only way of overcoming diseases like Covid-19 is through “herd immunity.” In other words, let everyone go about their business while the disease makes its way through the community. Over time people will develop an immunity to the virus. The inescapable facts, though, are that many will die in the process and the health system that we all depend on will collapse under the great numbers of sick people in our hospitals. Perhaps even a large percentage of health care workers will also succumb. Will any of those people who think this is the best way volunteer to go for the good of the rest of us?

Mostly herd immunity means that it will be the oldest among us that will die as they are the least able to fight off the infection, especially if they have other ailments. Already in Canada, 61% of deaths (total 167) have been people over the age of 80 years; 93% of deaths are people over 60 (total 254). Of those over the age of 60, about 15% die. Our long-term care facilities have been hardest hit.

Without even the physical distancing we are practicing and using a modest 2% of population would be infected, the percentages would mean that the deaths could total several hundred thousand people over the age of 60, given Canada’s current population distribution.

Oh well, this (my) group is mostly past its best-before date anyway! Right?

Numbers of cases don’t mean a lot when looking at pandemics. No country has tested everyone. And no country has even tested those that show any symptoms. So, the total cases are only an indication of how the virus has spread. Most testing in our region is on people showing symptoms as well as on health care workers.

Testing does give us a very good idea of where infections are breaking out and how they are being spread. For example, a large group of cases in Calgary was tracked to a prayer meeting a few weeks ago. Another group came out of a curling bonspiel in February. Over time we expect testing to increase such that we can narrow down problem areas or groups as well as put people’s minds to rest as to whether they might have inadvertently contracted the virus.

What really matters, in terms of looking at the pandemic’s effects is how many die. And that is best measured and compared in terms of deaths per million population. We are lucky to be living where we do. Our population in the province of Alberta is 4.4 million. Current deaths from Covid-19 are 46 (10.4 deaths per million population). Canada is also one of the favourable countries where the outbreak has occurred with 903 deaths in 37.6 million people (24 per million).

Compare that to Sweden where physical distancing is not as widely practiced. They have 118 deaths per million population. The worst is Spain, at 395 per million and Italy which has 387 deaths per million population. It is difficult to obtain accurate death information. For example, in the United Kingdom, deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities are not reported in daily tallies. Their reported death rate is 180 per million population due to Covid-19. In reality, the death rate is probably significantly higher.

Here is a small comparison of reported deaths from Covid-19 by country:

Country	Population (million)	Covid-19 Deaths	Deaths per Million
Spain	46.94	18,579	395.8
Belgium	11.46	4,440	387.4
Italy	60.36	21,067	349.0
France	66.99	15,729	234.8
Netherlands	17.28	3,134	181.4
United Kingdom	66.65	12,107	181.7
Switzerland	8.57	1,183	138.0
United States	328.2	26,061	79.4
Iran	81.80	4,777	58.4
Germany	83.02	3,495	42.1
Canada	37.59	903	24.0
South Korea	51.64	225	4.4

Hospitalizations tell us more about the spread and seriousness of Covid-19 infections in a community. Equally important is the number of people that end up in ICU. In Canada, according to the most recent Epidemiology Report, as of 14 April 2020: those over the age of 60 represent 35% of all cases; of those, 65% have required hospitalization; 63% of ICU admissions are also people over 60. Those 80 years of age and over who have contracted the virus have been hospitalized at the highest rate (51%). Those 70-79 years of age have been admitted to the ICU at the highest rate (14%). Once intubated, few elderly people survive and those that do can have serious physical and mental impairment.

Some jurisdictions have reported a high death rate of patients who have had to be admitted to ICUs – over 50%. Any who had to be intubated were obviously very advanced in respiratory distress and the death rates of those exceeded 80%.

None of this is good news. And re-emphasizes the point that older people should stay home. Others should restrict their contact with even small groups and avoid any unnecessary travel or trips across town.

Diary: Living with a pandemic 28 (Monday 13 April 2020)

Pets and Covid…

We might tend to forget our pets at a time like this. But they still need care and attention. Lucky for us I can still walk our dogs several times a day.

Some people have wondered if cats and dogs can get Covie-19, or carry it. This is what our veterinary specialists say,  “Based on what we know currently there is limited evidence to support risk of COVID-19 to your pet and no evidence that you are at risk from your pet. . . If your pet shows any signs of illness, such as coughing, sneezing or lethargy, call us immediately, and keep them indoors to prevent further spread. Signs of illness in dogs and cats are usually associated with various common viral and bacterial infections (kennel cough, canine flu, etc.) that are neither coronaviruses nor transmissible to people.”

Some owners, of course have taken precautions just to make sure their pets are safe.