Season of Storms

This is the time of year when most major tropical storms form in the Atlantic Ocean and begin their journey westward. The hurricane season normally begins in late spring (May of June) and ends in late fall (November or December). September in the peak month.

Atlantic hurricanes can generally be more frequent and intense between the time La Niña and El Niño conditions are present, although it is not a hard and fast rule. This year (2020) is one of those years. So far there have been eight storms of hurricane intensity out of 24 tropical or subtropical cyclones.

According to the US National Weather Service:

El Niño produces stronger westerly wind at upper levels of the atmosphere across the tropical Atlantic than in normal non-El Niño seasons. This increases the total vertical wind shear, basically shearing the tops from developing storms before a healthy circulation can form. El Niño events generally suppress Atlantic hurricane activity so fewer hurricanes than normal form in the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane season.

During La Niña, westerly winds high in the atmosphere weaken. This results in an expanded area of low vertical wind shear, allowing more Atlantic hurricanes to develop during La Niña events. La Niña increases the number of hurricanes that develop and allows stronger hurricanes to form.

The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane increase substantially during La Niña and decrease during El Niño.

El Niño and La Niña also influence where Atlantic hurricanes form. During La Niña, more hurricanes form in the deep Tropics from weather disturbances that originate over North Africa. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually reaching the U.S. and the Caribbean Islands.

The incidence of hurricanes is higher during the neutral phase (when neither El Niño nor La Niña are in effect) than during El Niño. Although hurricanes occur more often during La Niña episodes, significant tropical weather events have occurred during the neutral phase. For example, the record shattering 2005 hurricane season that included Katrina and Rita occurred during the neutral phase. Hurricane Andrew, the most destructive United States hurricane of record, made landfall along the Gulf coast during a neutral phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in 1992.

Superstorm Sandy, struck in 2012, during the tail end of an extended (2012-2012) La Niña event. It was the one of 18 named storms that year and the second major hurricane of the season. Damage totaled US$70 billion along its route from the Caribbean to New England, with 233 people killed. While only a category 3 storm, what made it so devasting was that it came ashore in the highly populated and developed area of New Jersey and New York.

Radar image of Hurricane Sandy on 29 October 2012 as it approached the Jersey shore

The Great New England Hurricane was also one of those. It struck New England in late September 1938 was a major storm that just preceded the 1938-39 La Niña event. Few people will remember this event or perhaps even read much about it as it competed with pre-WWII news out of Europe. But it was one of the deadliest storms to hit North America. The 1938 hurricane season produced nine tropical storms of which four developed into hurricanes.

Its westward track across the Atlantic missed most of the land masses around the Caribbean. It rapidly developed into a category 5 storm east of Florida with over 160 mph (260 kph) sustained winds. Coming up against a cold front, it then took a right angle turn to the north. It decreased in intensity but was still at category 3 when it made landfall on Long Island.

According to the National Hurricane Center:

Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 121 mph with gusts to 183 mph (likely influenced by terrain). A U.S. Coast Guard station on Long Island measured a minimum pressure of 27.94 in. Storm surges of 10 to 12 ft inundated portions of the coast from Long Island and Connecticut eastward to southeastern Massachusetts, with the most notable surges in Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay. Heavy rains before and during the hurricane produced river flooding, most notably along the Connecticut River. This hurricane struck with little warning and was responsible for 600 deaths and $308 million in damage in the United States.”

Nearly 9,000 homes and buildings were destroyed, and 15,000 damaged. Nearly 3,000 ships were sunk or wrecked. Power lines were downed across the region, causing widespread blackouts. Innumerable trees were fell ed, and 12 new inlets were created on Long Island. Railroads were destroyed and farms were obliterated (This Day in History).

Aftermath of Great New England Hurricane of 1938 – photos from The Boston Globe archive (other photos on National Weather Service website here)

Hurricanes are one of those types of events that cause widespread destruction. Prediction as to how and when the biggest ones may occur is still difficult. Even the less intense storms can be devastating if they come onshore where there are many people.

·         The deadliest storm was the 1900 Great Galveston Hurricane when between 8,000 and 12,000 people were killed. It struck a lowland region with a very high population.

·         The costliest was Hurricane Katrina in 2005 with damage tagged at US$160 billion.

·         The highest wind speed at landfall was recorded during the Hurricane Allen onslaught in 1969, which attained sustained winds of 190 mph (305 kph).

·         The most active season was 2005 when 15 storms developed into hurricanes.

It is difficult to see any trend in the number or intensity of hurricanes over the last century and a half.

The point here is that what we see today in terms of natural disasters is not dissimilar to what has gone on in the centuries past. Mother Nature frequently interferes with communities and the lives of people, in uncontrollable ways. And she will continue to do so.

Getting along with Mother Nature

 Mother Nature is always testing us. Mostly it has always been common sense that allowed humans to progress, work out solutions to whatever tests were brought to us. It’s no different now than it has been for 10,000 years. What is different is that we have technology now, and science, if we open our eyes and minds, to assist us.

Too much focus is being put on only one aspect – CO₂ – that we do not even know is a real problem. Not enough attention is being paid to the Earth’s system as a whole and what things we can actually control. Politicians and self-interest groups, whether or not they are well-meaning will not help solve problems. Many do not even understand them.

Watch Return to Eden. Some interesting perspectives are presented regarding the environment and climate. Some ideas for managing ecosystems and producing sufficient food are presented.

What will work to solve the challenges that face seven billion people? Not fighting about minor issues but a collective effort, based on real science and understanding how Mother Nature operates.

Canada: https://youtu.be/1s4vWrHw3WY
Dutch: https://youtu.be/TTNOnXHPvHA
German:  https://youtu.be/p3D1Ggkrz9M
United States: https://youtu.be/BM5P9GA-Mc4

Living with a pandemic 43

 Are we learning anything?

Most news reports about the pandemic these days are about the rising infections related to opening up the economy and the schools. Many people are nervous or angry or both as restrictions are eased or new procedures are put in place.

The new protocols, if one can describe them as that, are nothing but new experiments because no one really knows what might work to reduce or halt the spread of Covid-19. And yet, on the other hand, there is a group who think that all limitations on public behavior should never have been imposed. Have we learned anything from past epidemics and pandemics?

National Geographic has an interesting analysis of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and how different jurisdictions reacted to rising infections and deaths. Cities that shut down schools and enforced physical distancing early fared better.

We are doing many things that were done during past pandemics. The question is were they instituted in time to avoid the worst of the impacts. In Canada the rate of infection growth has been slowed with much better results than in many other parts of the world. Our deaths are ~244 per million population, far less than the worst-hit regions. The province of Alberta is just ~55 per million population. [Covid-19 infections confirmed at 10 September 2020 – 11,781; deaths – 253]

Locally, while cases are climbing again, hospitalizations are not. It is still worrying, though. Most new cases are among younger age groups who are trying vainly to go about their normal lives again. We may or may not have entered a second wave. There is non one alive that remembers the 1918 flu or what to expect.

In reading about the events of 100 years ago, it is interesting to learn that methods have not changed much other than medical facilities are much more advanced. Even in the last six months our medical people have learned more about what works in treatments and what is less effective. We are fortunate that this virus, while highly infectious, has not yet reached the devastation of the Spanish Flu.

I think we have learned from the past in getting control early and bringing in rules and restrictions to stem the tide of infections. There is not time to rest on our laurels, though, or relax our vigilance.

References to the Spanish Flu pandemic in Canada:

Alberta Doctors’ Digest (May – June 2020):

By the time the infection was over, Alberta would officially record 38,308 cases with 4,380 deaths (cf. 40,000 to 60,000 deaths in Canada) in a population of 500,000. Many felt this under-reported the cases. . . Most of those affected were 20 to 40 years of age. Houses were quarantined with a placard placed in the window, although not everyone chose to flag their homes. . . on October 30, all non-essential stores were closed, although some offered telephone-ordered goods for front door pick up. The community response was not unanimous. Some churches circulated pamphlets condemning their closure.

CBC News (December 2018):

Those struck by the illness were those impacted by the city's rapid urbanization, living in cramped, slum-like conditions . . . Many were young mothers, some whose husbands had left for the war. . . If Calgarians were hit hard, those living on reserves were hit harder. . . By the end of October, the province ruled everyone must wear face masks outside their home to stop the spread of the disease, loitering was banned and police were given the authority to quarantine people if deemed necessary.

Edmonton Journal (March 2020):

. . . They [theatres] were forced to close anyway on Oct. 18, when the Edmonton Board of Health banned public gatherings and ordered schools and churches to shut their doors. Gauze masks became mandatory — the Journal even printed instructions for how to make one out of cheesecloth. . . Businesses struggled to stay open. The government forced stores and offices to remain closed until 1 p.m.

The Canadian Encyclopedia (March 2020):

The pandemic brought not only death but social and economic disruption as well. Children were left parentless and many families found themselves without their chief wage earner. Armies on both sides of the First World War were temporarily debilitated. Businesses lost profits because of lack of demand for their products or because they were unable — as a result of a reduced work force — to meet the demand. Municipal governments, in an attempt to halt the spread of the disease, closed all except necessary services. Provinces enacted laws regarding quarantine and enforced the wearing of masks in public.

 

Living with a pandemic – 42

 

Schools are opening; the pandemic is still going on…

This is the first week of school openings in many parts of the world. In the great unknown of what to expect from or due to Covid-19, parents, teacher, school officials and government authorities are predictably nervous.

Many families have opted for home schooling rather than risk the health of their children or others with whom they would come in contact at home. One friend told me that since his son’s wife is a doctor, she could not take the chance of having one of her children bring the virus home. A positive test would mean she would have to quarantine for two weeks, knocking her out of her job for an extended period and causing havoc with family finances, not to mention getting sick herself and possibly passing it on to her patients. That is especially dangerous for medical personnel as we depend on them to keep the system running in case the rest of us get sick.

Information about whether children who contract the virus get seriously sick – in the short term or long term – is very much lacking at present as this is a new disease. The death rates for younger people have remained low and it is those age groups that are chaffing at the bit to get back to working and normal lives. Who can blame them?

Classification		Cases		Hospitalizations		ICU		Deaths		Lethality
		No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%
All		121,372	100	11,382	100	2,315	100	8,968	100	7.4
Age	80+	18,669	15.4	3,701	32.5	270	11.7	6,404	71.4	34.3
	70-79	8,395	6.9	2,337	20.5	539	23.3	1,629	25.4	19.4
	60-69	11,564	9.5	1,908	16.8	573	24.8	650	25.4	5.6
	50-59	17,872	14.7	1,567	13.8	480	20.7	210	2.3	1.2
	40.49	18,115	14.9	848	7.5	224	9.7	50	0.6	0.3
	30-39	17,658	14.5	539	4.7	115	5.0	15	0.2	0.1
	20-29	18,885	15.6	337	3.0	87	3.8	9	.01	0.0
	0-19	10,214	8.4	145	1.3	27	1.2	1	0.0	0.0

Table 1 – Cover-19 cases in Canada by age as of August 23, 2020

Infections are rising in those groups, though, with the probability that the virus can and will be passed along to the older members of the community who remain the most vulnerable. There are also new strains being recognized about which we know nothing, particularly what their impact may be on younger people. During the 1918 pandemic, it was the second wave that killed more people in the prime of their lives.

Most countries have now taken measures to keep their hospitalization numbers low. That’s a good thing. Were we too uncertain about where numbers would go without restrictions on social distancing or other restrictions? One only has to look at a few places where controls were lax to see that systems could be stretched to the limit had the infection rate been allowed to go unchecked – looking for that herd immunity being professed as an ultimate cure.

The telling statistic is in death rates, not cases identified. There has been a wide spread of test numbers, in total and as a ratio to population. In most areas, tests have only been given to those who had been in contact with infected people or who showed signs of sickness. That is gradually being opened up. The infections per number of tests remains generally the same indicating that there are many people who have the virus but don’t show symptoms.

While deaths may be more than are being recorded, we can still get an idea of the magnitude from published data and compare how various countries have handled the pandemic. Canada is doing reasonably well relative to other jurisdictions. South Korea and Taiwan locked down hard and early. The United Kingdom was late and haphazard in its reaction. The respective death numbers probably illustrate how different rules resulted in different results.

Country	Population (millions)	Covid-19 Deaths	Deaths/ Million
Belgium	11.46	9,884	862.48
UK	66.65	41,504	622.72
Spain	46.94	29,152	621.05
Italy	60.36	35,483	587.86
USA	328.2	187,441	571.12
Sweden	10.23	5,808	567.74
France	66.99	30,661	457.70
Netherlands	17.28	6,220	359.95
Canada	37.59	9,126	242.78
Switzerland	8.57	1,725	201.28
Germany	83.02	9,371	112.88
Turkey	82.00	6,370	77.68
Australia	24.99	657	26.29
South Korea	51.64	326	6.31
Taiwan	23.78	7	0.29

 

Table 2 – Death rates for select countries as of August 31, 2020

Lockdowns, on the other hand, are causing severe strain on economies, not helped by generous contributions of cash by governments to assist people who have become unemployed or have had unexpected expenses. There is a worrisome trend among some of those in charge in keeping the gravy train rolling rather than open up business again. That, of course, garners votes from many people who like more money for less work. In the end those policies will hinder rather than help any recovery and disincentivize people from working at all – and paying taxes to reduce the debts being accumulated.

News reports from around the world indicate infection rates are rising almost in lockstep with the relaxation of social distancing rules and opening of businesses. We will have to eventually do the latter, but it may also be necessary to still control the former. In Alberta, the numbers are showing that either we did not flatten the first wave as well as we thought or that a second wave is well in progress. Flattening, or at least keeping the spike in numbers low can, I think, be attributed to locking down our society. Had that not been done, it is not inconceivable that all those cases now being seen might have been experienced months ago and the peak could have been much higher – and still growing.

The argument rages whether locking down early or late is best. Ultimately, we won’t know if there is an answer to that possibly for several years. It has been inconvenient. It has been devastating for businesses. It has caused hardship for families. But then every pandemic through has had those results. Some have killed many more people, in total and as a proportion of the populations. We don’t know that this virus would not have had or will not have the same impact without the stringent rules put in place. Hindsight is great. We are learning more each day about it and about how people respond to both the illness and the restrictions put on them.

It is clear to me that, since I am in a highly vulnerable age group, I will need to take more precautions about how I interact with others, that I might have hoped to be able to do with respect to other diseases and epidemics that have and continue to come along.

That’s just the way it is going to be! No use in getting stressed about it.